wildfires: a growing global menace
Wildfires: A growing menace
The recent US wildfires serve as more than a localized disaster. They are a visceral reminder of the systemic vulnerabilities our world faces as climate driven extreme weather events intensifies, creating deadly processes such as climate whiplash. From the choking smoke clouds to the unrelenting Santa Ana winds fuelling the flames consuming homes, ecosystems, and livelihoods, these events are not just California’s problem—they’re a warning for all of us.
“Wildfires exemplify the devastating consequences of climate-driven disasters and the need for building substantive resilience capacity.”
Wildfires are not new to LA, but the escalating scale and timing of these events highlight the critical importance of proactive action and collaboration, especially amidst shifting U.S. climate policies. Wildfires exemplify the devastating consequences of climate-driven disasters and the need for building substantive resilience capacity.
As climate driven extreme weather events become more frequent and severe, adopting a systems-thinking approach to resilience—acknowledging interdependencies across policy, planning, solutions design, finance, insurance, culture and awareness and operations—is essential. A holistic approach reduces impacts, accelerates recovery, and minimises human, nature and economic losses.
A Climate Signal We Can’t Ignore
Wildfires have become emblematic of climate change’s feedback loops and tipping points. Their increasing frequency and intensity are both a symptom of global warming and an accelerant of its effects. Globally wildfires in 2023 alone emitted over 8.8 billion tonnes of CO₂ - representing a 16% increase over historical averages, almost twice the volume of the US’s total annual emissions (c.4.5bn tCo2). The contribution of emissions and pollutants caused by wildfires is yet to be fully acknowledged in international climate policy jeopardising global efforts on climate change.
Across the globe, fire seasons are lengthening. For example, in regions like California, warming trends have lengthened fire seasons by 70 days since the 1970s. The hotter and drier conditions create a self-reinforcing loop: wildfires can destroy carbon sinks like forests and peatlands, releasing massive amounts of CO₂ and methane, which further amplify global warming.
“Globally wildfires in 2023 alone emitted over 8.8 billion tonnes of CO₂ - representing a 16% increase over historical averages, almost twice the volume of the US’s total annual emissions (c.4.5bn tCo2). ”
Impacts from wildfires are vast. The health considerations regarding air quality spark alarm. Studies show that wildfire smoke has undone around 25% of air quality improvements made between 2000-2016, with an estimated 1.5 million annual deaths linked to wildfire-related air pollution illnesses globally. The impact on nature, biodiversity and the various ecosystem services can be catastrophic with s compounding impacts driving droughts and flooding. After large wildfires, the loss of vegetation and creation of water-repellent soil can lead to increased flooding and mudflow risks impacting food security and water.
The economic toll of wildfires can be staggering. Wildfire prone nations such as the US, Canada and Australia can often see astronomical losses. The US Congress Joint Economic Committee (IJEC) estimated in October 2023 that the total cost of wildfires ranged between $394bn and $893 bn in the US alone.
“With tens of billions of dollars in insured losses and hundreds of billions of total economic costs, wildfires are a systemic shock that exposes how interconnected our vulnerabilities are”
Yet, this is not just an ecological and meteorological problem. Wildfires’ ripple effects extend to human health and mental wellness, economic stability, and even political landscapes. Already burdened by car and industry emissions, LA's air quality worsens significantly during wildfires—a reality faced by many urban centers worldwide struggling with increasing wildfires. The impact to strategic water resources can often be a major issue too. With tens of billions of dollars in insured losses and hundreds of billions of total economic costs, wildfires are a systemic shock that exposes how interconnected our vulnerabilities are, the world is set to see more intense and higher frequency wildfires in geographies not previously considered high risk. particularly in high risk regions.
The Political and Socio-Economic Fallout
As with any crisis, wildfires magnify pre-existing societal challenges. The economic devastation—rebuilding costs, insurance premiums, uninsurability, and lost livelihoods—often disproportionately impacts lower-income communities, widening the inequality gap. Studies show that recovery in affluent neighbourhoods is faster due to better access to insurance, rebuilding funds, and resources, leaving lower-income areas more vulnerable to displacement and prolonged hardship. Yet, these disasters are life-changing for everyone, irrespective of their background, disrupting lives, livelihoods, and communities across the socioeconomic spectrum.
“Debates over land management practices or regulatory policies (while important) frequently dominate the discourse, overshadowing the systemic drivers of climate change.”
This shared vulnerability underscores the broader economic strain, which often deepens divisions in how wildfire causes and responses are framed. Debates over land management practices or regulatory policies (while important) frequently dominate the discourse, overshadowing the systemic drivers of climate change. Such political fallout risks stalling coordinated efforts to address both immediate and long-term risks effectively. Collaboration and coordination across all sectors and stakeholders are crucial to manage these challenges in the long term.
The disparity in climate finance further exacerbates these issues. Globally, only 5-7% of climate finance is directed toward adaptation and resilience, while the majority focuses on mitigation. This imbalance leaves vulnerable communities—both urban and rural—underprepared for the immediate and compounding impacts of climate-driven disasters, emphasizing the urgency of a more balanced and inclusive approach.
A Framework for Resilience: Planning, Adapting, Recovering
To break the cycle of destruction caused by wildfires and other climate stressors, we must embrace resilience as a systemic response. Achieving systemic resilience requires a holistic and proactive approach that integrates every stage of risk management and mitigation. This approach can be framed around three key phases: planning, adapting, and recovering.
“Achieving systemic resilience requires a holistic and proactive approach that integrates every stage of risk management and mitigation. This approach can be framed around three key phases: planning, adapting, and recovering.”
Planning involves anticipating risks and opportunities through advanced data intelligence and scenario modelling. This proactive step identifies and addresses vulnerabilities before they escalate into crises, ensuring preparedness and informed decision-making.
Adapting means reducing exposure to hazards by strengthening infrastructure, working closer with nature, and collaborating with communities. It involves implementing strategies that enable coexistence with emerging risks, ensuring that systems and structures are resilient in the face of challenges.
Recovering focuses on rebuilding stronger and smarter. Recovery efforts must prioritize not just restoring what was lost, but improving resilience to withstand future threats. This transformation ensures long-term sustainability and enhances the overall resilience of communities and ecosystems.
While this framework appears straightforward, it encompasses a complex interplay of diverse solutions and actions applied across multiple sectors. It captures the core essence of many existing more detailed frameworks across industries and regions that already guide resilience and response.
Shared Challenges Across the Globe
“In Canada, the 2023 wildfire season accounted for 23% of global wildfire carbon emissions for that year, illustrating how even traditionally resilient regions are becoming overwhelmed. ”
Wildfires are not just an LA problem; regions like the Mediterranean, Australia, and the Arctic face similar challenges. In 2021, wildfires ravaged over 400,000 hectares across Greece and Turkey, exacerbated by poor land-use policies and insufficient insurance coverage, leaving many communities stranded. Following Australia's Black Summer Fires, insurance premiums in fire-prone areas surged by over 50%, leaving numerous households uninsured. In Canada, the 2023 wildfire season accounted for 23% of global wildfire carbon emissions for that year, illustrating how even traditionally resilient regions are becoming overwhelmed. The shared lesson is clear: without a proactive systemic resilience response, wildfires and other climate driven stressors will continue to devastate lives and ecosystems worldwide and exacerbate climate change.
A Way Forward
Recent major wildfires from across the globe, and their growing intensity and devastation, are a clear example of how competing and amplifying factors can converge to create terrifying and devastating outcomes. This should have us all paying much closer attention, as it demonstrates the consequences of ignoring feedback loops, underfunding resilience, and failing to connect the dots between short-term suffering and long-term systemic risks. But they also remind us of the power of human ingenuity and collective action.
Even regions traditionally considered low-risk, such as the UK, are now facing an increasing threat from wildfires due to hotter, drier summers and changes in land use. Without proactive resilience measures and a deep understanding of the various drivers that can conspire to increase wildfire risks, these areas risk joining the growing list of wildfire-prone regions worldwide over the next 10-15 years.
“As we continue to develop and urbanize, working closer with nature becomes crucial. Recognising the value of nature and integrating natural solutions into our urban planning and development will profoundly impact how we manage these risks, ensuring a more resilient and sustainable future.”
Forward-thinking policy, planning and financial instruments including fully resourcing first response whilst making sure communities have access to insurance are crucial requirements to driving the right outcomes. Governments must align policy frameworks with resilience goals, shifting economic investments towards planning and prevention as well as incentivizing adaptive measures and mandating fire-resilient building practices. Closing the gap between mitigation and adaptation finance is critical to equipping vulnerable communities with the tools and finance they need to withstand and recover from disasters.
As we continue to develop and urbanize, working closer with nature becomes crucial. Recognising the value of nature and integrating natural solutions into our urban planning and development will profoundly impact how we manage these risks, ensuring a more resilient and sustainable future.
We have the tools and frameworks to build a future where wildfires are no longer an inevitable catastrophe. The question is whether we will act boldly and urgently enough to make resilience a global priority.
